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In 2011 the United Nations Broadband Commission set a goal to get 60 per cent of the world’s population online by 2015. Today, is seems unlikely that the target will be achieved before 2021, at the earliest.
The State of Broadband 2015 Report by the UN Broadband Commission, released on Monday, said that growth in Internet access was predicted to drop further this year as rich economies reach saturation point, while 90 per cent of people in the 48 poorest countries had no chance to go online.
The report confirms the role of broadband internet access as vital enabler of social and economic development. At the same time it points strongly to the need, particularly in developing countries for clear, structured, multi-stakeholder approaches to improving both the quality of and access to broadband services.
Internet growth challenges
Some 57 per cent of the world’s population, more than four billion people, still did not use the Internet regularly or actively, according to the report. That figure falls well short of the UN’s target of having 60 per cent of the world online by 2020.
The report attributed the shortfall to the high cost of extending infrastructure to include rural and remote customers, and a dramatic global downturn in the growth of mobile cellular subscriptions.
The report said that the access growth rate was expected to drop to 8.1 per cent in 2015, as compared with 8.6 per cent in 2014. Growth had been in double figures in the years up to 2012.
The challenge is particularly acute in the developing world. Only about 34 per cent of people are connected in households within developing countries. This is in stark contrast to the developed world, where Internet penetration is approaching saturation, with 82.2 per cent of the population online.
Household Internet access in developed countries is close to saturation, with more than 81.3 per cent of households connected. However, Internet user penetration in the developing world is unlikely to achieve the Broadband Commission target of 50 per cent before 2020.
While the proportion of households in the developing world with Internet access increased from 31.5 per cent at the end of 2014 to over 34.1 per cent a year later, the figure is still well short of the Broadband Commission target of 40 per cent by 2015. Women in poorer countries and language minorities are among those most likely to remain offline, according to the report.
Mobile growth slowing
Growth in both mobile cellular subscriptions and Internet usage has also slowed sharply, according to the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), a UN agency responsible for global telecommunications policies and standards.
The good news is that there is strong growth in mobile broadband and Facebook usage. In fact, the room for connectivity improvement in emerging markets is seen as a key growth opportunity for companies such as Facebook and google. Facebook’s Internet.org and Google’s Project Loon initiatives are part of those companies strategy for extending their reach worldwide.
Broadband prices falling
Another noteworthy reveal in the report was that fixed broadband prices as a share of gross national income (GNI) per capita have dropped by 65 per cent on average worldwide. By 2014, most countries in the world had reached the commission’s target of basic fixed-broadband service at less than five per cent of monthly GNI per capita.
By the end of 2014, a basic fixed broadband subscription cost less than five per cent of average GNI per capita in 111 countries, of which 44 were developed nations and 67 were developing countries compared with 57 developing countries at the end of 2013, and 48 developing countries at the end of 2012.
Broadening broadband access
Broadband Internet access is a critical component in any modern national development agenda. It has a positive impact on economic development, civic engagement, education, business competitiveness, healthcare and public safety.
For this reason, public policy is key enabler for accelerating broadband adoption and fostering the economic and social development opportunities it affords.
In addition to effective public policy, broadband adoption hinges on digital literacy, public sensitisation and local content development efforts. There is a definite role for both public and private sector actors to play in supporting these efforts.
For example, Governments can provide support through modernisation of legislation; updates to operator licenses and spectrum allocation policies; establishment of targets for minimum broadband speeds; and development of national broadband strategies. Service providers can also be encouraged and incentivised to invest more heavily in deployment of network and technologies that support high speed broadband services to extend coverage and increase bandwidth.
The private sector can also play a greater role in public education and capacity building initiatives to support the development of new digital services and innovations. This is key if developing markets are to make the shift from net content consumers to net content producers.
The proliferation of smartphones and increasing demand of online services like video and music streaming, is already forcing operators to increase investments in broadband networks to increase bandwidth and quality of services to handle increasing traffic. However, there’s always more that can be done.
Broadband Internet access plays too crucial a role in development of modern society and economy to leave to chance.
After all, broadband is the foundation of the digital economy and cornerstone of the knowledge society. It will take a collective effort to ensure that the foundation is well laid, and well secured.
Bevil Wooding is an Internet Strategist with Packet Clearing House (www.pch.net) an international research and capacity building non-profit organisation. He is also chief knowledge office at Congress WBN (www.congresswbn.org), responsible for its technology operations and outreach initiatives. Follow on Twitter: @bevilwooding